Doc – Gold’s Breakout, Gold Equities Outlook, What Higher Rates Mean For PMs and Markets
Richard Postma, AKA Doc, joins us for his monthly segment looking at gold, gold equities and the broad markets. Doc is now seeing that charts say that gold could make it to $5,000-$10,000 gold.
We start by focusing on the breakout in gold above $2,100 and the follow through last week. Doc outlines how he sees the gold price moving through a gradual rise and a possible back-test of the recent breakout. We then discuss the price action in the major gold mining stocks, which the vast majority have bounced on higher volumes. We also look at the silver chart and key levels that would further signify a breakout and bull market.
Another market, outside of precious metals, that Doc has his eye on is the bond market. Doc thinks the bond market is telling everyone that inflation is not dead and higher rates will be here for a lot longer. Rates could move as high as 10% over a few years.
Must listen, just finished on YouTube:
Liberty and Finance
Dunagun Kaiser and Andy Schectman
Very big picture, rates are going higher. For now and for many months to come, the next significant move for interest rates will most likely be lower.
TLT monthly (TLT going higher in price means rates are going lower):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=M&yr=15&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92471347679&a=1390759457&r=1710215148780&cmd=print
Both price and momentum breakouts are probably coming sooner than I think (I “think” one to two months at most).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p43294210597&a=1183823034
Gold stocks are weakening relative to silver stocks and that’s a good thing for both.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p89067025675&a=1627717324
Ooooooooops. The Fed has a real problem—-the CPI report this morning came out even hotter then expected and gold is being hit. The narrative that the Fed has to cut rates soon and often is now stood on its’ head again. Stagflation is now staring us in the face and gas prices moving up is now in the mix again. This coming decade is going to be filled with volatility and even though PMs may be hit short term along with the stocks, the coming opportunities for the patient will ultimately be rewarded big time.
I have been saying for a long time that we aren’t even near finished with inflation. Rates are going higher you should see the prices we are paying in Canada, it’s Third World. DT
The bond market was in a secular bull market for about 40 years so get ready for a decades-long secular bear market which of course means higher interest rates. That’s the big picture. For now, I see little reason to doubt the resumption of the countertrend move that began in October.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p25287630536&a=1628523668
321 gold……
Bob Moriarty: There Is No Historical Precedent For Today’s Gold Market, Miners Could Rally 500%
Within the article……………..
Goldfinger:
I agree with everything you said, including that I don’t like Trump, except for 2020 was not stolen. And I’ll tell you why. I voted for Trump in 2016, and he won. I voted for Biden in 2020, and he won. So the president I vote for is the one that wins. So I know it wasn’t stolen because I voted for Biden.
GOLDFINGER….VOTED FOR BIDEN…………… WOW……
“Election was not stolen”…. lol…….. go back to sleep….
The fact that guy voted for Biden tells you why America is in trouble—the schizophrenia of a block of voters in this country is amazing.
Kind of wondering , if, this guy knows anything about anything… 🙂
Hi Jerry, he should stick to stocks he doesn’t understand the political environment. Have you ever talked to a group of musicians; they are so into music that they can’t see what is happening around them. Many of the successful ones hire promoters to handle their finances and end up broke. Just because you are smart at one thing doesn’t mean you are well rounded enough to see what’s happening around you. I see people time and time again say that if you are a doctor or a lawyer you must be smart. If you can memorize information and regurgitate it on an exam paper that doesn’t make you smart that makes you an idiot. To be smart you have to know how to think, having a diploma or a university degree doesn’t make someone smart. DT 🤣
Hello DT…… ,
Ditto……… he needs to stick to the stock stuff….. 🙂
All he needs to know about politics, is Biden’s last speech … lol … What a freaking IDIOT.(JB)
Jam the Border BIDEN
I thought his TDS was common knowledge by now. I’ve pointed out his irrational lefty take on silver more than once.
The “hit” gold took today was less than meaningless considering that it was overdue and coming from a very overbought reading. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t go lower from here at least briefly because it would be normal to do so.
Gold is still above its upper weekly Bollinger Band.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=10&dy=0&id=p52578070825
Gold’s daily RSI reading is still in overbought territory.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09903204994&a=1628572579
EXK is up about 38% vs GDX in the last 8 sessions and even added a little to that gain today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXK%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p25446915986&a=1571406662
GDX fell even more relative to SILJ today at -1.4% which is hardly a bearish sign for the sector.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p98570541347&a=1627717324
The XAU fell only slightly relative to the S&P 500.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p15848106202&a=1180266956
No damage to HL today as it finished 3% off its low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p45070090519&a=1608030250
Karora Announces Consolidated 2024 Gold Production Guidance Of 170,000 – 185,000 Ounces At AISC Of US$1,250 – US$1,375 Per Ounce Sold
March 11, 2024
https://www.karoraresources.com/2024-03-11-Karora-Announces-Consolidated-2024-Gold-Production-Guidance-of-170,000-185,000-ounces-at-AISC-of-US-1,250-US-1,375-per-ounce-sold